FLORIDA GULF COAST
EAGLESFGCU
6-7 | Road
83
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
5-8 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
BEARS
0%
EAGLES
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-53.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +53.0 points (Central Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CARK -53.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)
FGCU By 1-7 points
0.0%
FGCU By 8-14 points
0.0%
CARK By 1-7 points
0.0%
CARK By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida Gulf Coast
44
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Central Arkansas
97
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Florida Gulf Coast
70
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Central Arkansas
76
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -53.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
FGCU @ CARK
63 - 73
Feb 21, 2026
CARK @ FGCU
71 - 75
Jan 1, 2026
FGCU @ CARK
83 - 85
Jan 11, 2025
CARK @ FGCU
71 - 77
Feb 1, 2024
FGCU @ CARK
82 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+71.7% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 3.7
vs
Central Arkansas: 1.0
Rebounding (L5)
+15.9% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 38.5
vs
Central Arkansas: 32.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Florida Gulf Coast: 70.3%
vs
Central Arkansas: 64.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score
44.0
83
CARK Score
97.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 35.4
39.0 / 45.0
Assists
16.6 / 16.0
19.0 / 18.0
Blocks
1.0 / 3.7
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 45.5
52.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
64.4 / 70.3
80.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 38.5
32.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.7 / 8.5
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.2
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CARK
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1
(29.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +1.3
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
FGCU
CARK
FGCU
ML
67%
22-11
58%
19-14
70%
23-10
67%
22-11
ATS
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
70%
23-10
67%
22-11
TTL
50%
16-16-1
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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