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JACKSONVILLE

DOLPHINSJAX

5-8  |  Road

57
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 2:00 PM ET
Allen Arena
View Odds Details →

LIPSCOMB

BISONSLIP

7-6  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
BISONS
0%
DOLPHINS --
BISONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LIPSCOMB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Lipscomb)
DolphinsJAX (-3.5) 0 BisonsLIP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

42.1%

Bisons Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIP -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIP)

JAX By 1-7 points

23.0%

JAX By 8-14 points

12.2%

LIP By 1-7 points

26.8%

LIP By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
71
JACKSONVILLE
73
LIPSCOMB
Simulated Score
74
JACKSONVILLE
78
LIPSCOMB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bisons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bisons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bisons (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bisons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 LIP @ JAX 65 - 70
Jan 1, 2026 JAX @ LIP 57 - 76
Jan 2, 2025 LIP @ JAX 70 - 65
Feb 3, 2024 JAX @ LIP 82 - 84
Feb 18, 2023 JAX @ LIP 59 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +68.9% more
Lipscomb: 21.6 vs Jacksonville: 12.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
Lipscomb: 12.7 vs Jacksonville: 11.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.8% more
Lipscomb: 35.4 vs Jacksonville: 31.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Lipscomb: 38.1% vs Jacksonville: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 71.0 57
LIP Score 73.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 31.4 43.0 / 29.0
Assists 21.6 / 12.8 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 43.5 51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 72.9 91.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 31.9 26.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.3 12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.4 4.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
LIP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: -1.3
LIP Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.4
LIP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIP
JAX
LIP
JAX
ML
71% 22-9
74% 23-8
66% 19-10
60% 18-12
ATS
71% 22-9
65% 20-11
66% 19-10
61% 19-12
TTL
58% 18-13
65% 20-11
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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