WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
4-9 | Road
60
UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
9-4 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
LEATHERNECKS
100%
SKYHAWKS
0%
LEATHERNECKS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UT MARTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (UT Martin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTM -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTM)
WIU By 1-7 points
12.2%
WIU By 8-14 points
4.0%
UTM By 1-7 points
24.3%
UTM By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Illinois
78
WESTERN ILLINOIS
UT Martin
87
UT MARTIN
Simulated Score
Western Illinois
71
WESTERN ILLINOIS
UT Martin
78
UT MARTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
UTM @ WIU
84 - 44
Jan 1, 2026
WIU @ UTM
60 - 67
Feb 8, 2025
WIU @ UTM
70 - 81
Jan 9, 2025
UTM @ WIU
85 - 83
Feb 10, 2024
UTM @ WIU
62 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+62.6% more
UT Martin: 15.4
vs
Western Illinois: 9.5
Steals (L5)
+29.9% more
UT Martin: 9.2
vs
Western Illinois: 7.1
Rebounding (L5)
+22.9% more
UT Martin: 40.7
vs
Western Illinois: 33.2
Blocks (L5)
+9.4% more
UT Martin: 3.1
vs
Western Illinois: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIU Score
78.0
60
UTM Score
87.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 26.3
29.0 / 34.0
Assists
15.4 / 9.5
9.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.9
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 42.5
39.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 66.5
68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
40.7 / 33.2
42.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.2 / 7.1
11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.4
7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
UTM
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTM
WIU
UTM
WIU
ML
69%
22-10
45%
14-17
69%
20-9
61%
19-12
ATS
56%
18-14
52%
16-15
69%
20-9
61%
19-12
TTL
44%
14-18
45%
14-17
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
