Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Mavericks CBU @ UTA

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

10-4  |  Road

51
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 3:00 PM ET
College Park Center
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

8-5  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
LANCERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UT Arlington)
LancersCBU (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

42.1%

Mavericks Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

CBU By 1-7 points

23.0%

CBU By 8-14 points

12.2%

UTA By 1-7 points

26.8%

UTA By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
85
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
87
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
68
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
72
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 UTA @ CBU 56 - 68
Jan 31, 2026 CBU @ UTA 87 - 77
Jan 1, 2026 CBU @ UTA 51 - 63
Mar 8, 2025 UTA @ CBU 68 - 70
Feb 13, 2025 CBU @ UTA 79 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.7% more
UT Arlington: 5.7 vs California Baptist: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +12.5% more
California Baptist: 2.9 vs UT Arlington: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
California Baptist: 39.4 vs UT Arlington: 34.8
Assists (L5) +9.0% more
California Baptist: 12.1 vs UT Arlington: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CBU Score 85.0 51
UTA Score 87.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 30.6 25.0 / 23.0
Assists 11.0 / 12.1 13.0 / 4.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.9 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 45.1 35.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 77.7 87.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 39.4 33.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.7 / 4.4 12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 16.1 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
UTA
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
CBU
UTA
CBU
ML
50% 16-16
50% 17-17
62% 20-12
76% 25-8
ATS
59% 19-13
53% 18-16
62% 20-12
76% 25-8
TTL
53% 17-15
47% 16-18
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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