Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Trojans TNTC @ LR

TENNESSEE TECH

GOLDEN EAGLESTNTC

6-8  |  Road

58
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 5:00 PM ET
Jack Stephens Center
View Odds Details →

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

4-9  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
TROJANS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Little Rock)
Golden EaglesTNTC (-3.5) 0 TrojansLR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

4.5%

Trojans Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LR -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

TNTC By 1-7 points

3.3%

TNTC By 8-14 points

0.6%

LR By 1-7 points

12.2%

LR By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
77
TENNESSEE TECH
94
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
68
TENNESSEE TECH
74
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trojans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trojans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trojans (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Trojans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 LR @ TNTC 77 - 87
Jan 1, 2026 TNTC @ LR 58 - 77
Feb 13, 2025 TNTC @ LR 75 - 79
Jan 18, 2025 LR @ TNTC 77 - 71
Mar 2, 2024 TNTC @ LR 43 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +78.4% more
Little Rock: 4.3 vs Tennessee Tech: 2.4
Assists (L5) +37.3% more
Tennessee Tech: 16.0 vs Little Rock: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +12.9%
Tennessee Tech: 74.1% vs Little Rock: 61.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Tennessee Tech: 48.5% vs Little Rock: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNTC Score 77.0 58
LR Score 94.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 35.6 30.0 / 24.0
Assists 10.0 / 16.0 21.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.4 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 48.5 53.0 / 28.0
Free Throw % 61.2 / 74.1 68.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 32.9 34.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.4 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 14.1 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNTC Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.4
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNTC Advantage
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.4
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TNTC
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
TNTC
LR
TNTC
ML
52% 16-15
50% 15-15
68% 17-8
65% 15-8
ATS
45% 14-17
50% 15-15
68% 17-8
65% 15-8
TTL
58% 18-13
57% 17-13
100% 25-0
100% 23-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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