SOUTHERN MISS
GOLDEN EAGLESUSM
7-7 | Road
87
UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
3-11 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
WARHAWKS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
WARHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
101.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UL Monroe)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ULM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)
USM By 1-7 points
24.3%
USM By 8-14 points
13.7%
ULM By 1-7 points
26.2%
ULM By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Miss
50
SOUTHERN MISS
UL Monroe
51
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
Southern Miss
69
SOUTHERN MISS
UL Monroe
75
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Warhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warhawks (+8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Warhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 101.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 10, 2026
ULM @ USM
60 - 70
Jan 1, 2026
USM @ ULM
87 - 73
Feb 15, 2025
USM @ ULM
74 - 81
Jan 9, 2025
ULM @ USM
67 - 84
Feb 15, 2024
ULM @ USM
68 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.7% more
UL Monroe: 4.2
vs
Southern Miss: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+40.2% more
UL Monroe: 6.9
vs
Southern Miss: 4.9
Assists (L5)
+32.8% more
UL Monroe: 14.4
vs
Southern Miss: 10.8
Turnovers (L5)
+32.0% more
UL Monroe: 15.0
vs
Southern Miss: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USM Score
50.0
87
ULM Score
51.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 28.7
32.0 / 36.0
Assists
14.4 / 10.8
12.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.2 / 2.9
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 39.4
42.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 75.3
64.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
32.2 / 35.7
24.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.9 / 4.9
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 11.4
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +3.2
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
USM
ULM
USM
ML
50%
16-16
53%
18-16
70%
21-9
73%
24-9
ATS
78%
25-7
59%
20-14
70%
21-9
74%
25-9
TTL
59%
19-13
68%
23-11
100%
30-0
100%
34-0
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