NORTHERN COLORADO
BEARSUNCO
10-3 | Road
75
MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
6-7 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
BEARS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Montana State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTST -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)
UNCO By 1-7 points
8.0%
UNCO By 8-14 points
2.2%
MTST By 1-7 points
20.1%
MTST By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Colorado
49
NORTHERN COLORADO
Montana State
61
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Colorado
73
NORTHERN COLORADO
Montana State
78
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
MTST @ UNCO
73 - 68
Jan 1, 2026
UNCO @ MTST
75 - 89
Mar 11, 2025
MTST @ UNCO
45 - 72
Feb 8, 2025
MTST @ UNCO
66 - 73
Jan 9, 2025
UNCO @ MTST
83 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+127.4% more
Montana State: 6.7
vs
Northern Colorado: 3.0
Blocks (L5)
+76.3% more
Montana State: 2.3
vs
Northern Colorado: 1.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Montana State: 68.9%
vs
Northern Colorado: 63.9%
Assists (L5)
+20.8% more
Northern Colorado: 15.9
vs
Montana State: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score
49.0
75
MTST Score
61.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.8 / 40.3
36.0 / 36.0
Assists
12.6 / 15.9
9.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.3 / 1.3
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 52.3
52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
68.9 / 63.9
72.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 36.8
30.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.7 / 3.0
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 11.1
7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
MTST
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.7
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
UNCO
MTST
UNCO
ML
52%
16-15
50%
16-16
67%
20-10
66%
21-11
ATS
52%
16-15
53%
17-15
67%
20-10
66%
21-11
TTL
65%
20-11
50%
16-16
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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