Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rainbow Warriors @ Highlanders HAW @ UCR

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

10-2  |  Road

88
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 8:00 PM ET
SRC Arena
View Odds Details →

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

6-8  |  Home

45
AI Model Win Probability
RAINBOW WARRIORS
100%
📊
HIGHLANDERS
0%
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
HIGHLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (UC Riverside)
Rainbow WarriorsHAW (-3.5) 0 HighlandersUCR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rainbow Warriors Cover

1.4%

Highlanders Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCR -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)

HAW By 1-7 points

1.1%

HAW By 8-14 points

0.1%

UCR By 1-7 points

5.8%

UCR By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
54
HAWAI'I
76
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
69
HAWAI'I
72
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Highlanders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Highlanders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Highlanders (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Highlanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 UCR @ HAW 74 - 93
Jan 1, 2026 HAW @ UCR 88 - 45
Feb 27, 2025 UCR @ HAW 82 - 76
Jan 9, 2025 HAW @ UCR 83 - 76
Mar 2, 2024 HAW @ UCR 76 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +40.9% more
UC Riverside: 15.0 vs Hawai'i: 10.7
Blocks (L5) +13.8% more
UC Riverside: 4.1 vs Hawai'i: 3.6
Assists (L5) +9.1% more
UC Riverside: 15.8 vs Hawai'i: 14.5
Steals (L5) +24.1% more
Hawai'i: 6.0 vs UC Riverside: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 54.0 88
UCR Score 76.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 32.4 19.0 / 48.0
Assists 15.8 / 14.5 4.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.6 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 45.6 32.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 72.7 67.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 40.7 24.0 / 46.0
Steals 4.6 / 6.0 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 10.7 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
UCR Advantage
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
HAW
UCR
HAW
ML
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
75% 24-8
68% 21-10
ATS
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
75% 24-8
68% 21-10
TTL
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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