Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Grizzlies NAU @ MONT

NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

6-7  |  Road

64
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 6:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

6-7  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
LUMBERJACKS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-51.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +51.0 points (Montana)
LumberjacksNAU (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

0.0%

Grizzlies Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -51.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

NAU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NAU By 8-14 points

0.0%

MONT By 1-7 points

0.0%

MONT By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NORTHERN ARIZONA
90
MONTANA
Simulated Score
68
NORTHERN ARIZONA
76
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 19, 2026 MONT @ NAU 98 - 72
Jan 1, 2026 NAU @ MONT 64 - 78
Mar 9, 2025 NAU @ MONT 65 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 MONT @ NAU 83 - 80
Jan 9, 2025 NAU @ MONT 76 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +136.2% more
Montana: 3.9 vs Northern Arizona: 1.6
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Montana: 15.8 vs Northern Arizona: 13.4
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Montana: 70.1% vs Northern Arizona: 66.2%
Steals (L5) +25.1% more
Northern Arizona: 9.7 vs Montana: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 39.0 64
MONT Score 90.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 44.8 42.0 / 37.0
Assists 16.1 / 17.7 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.9 / 1.6 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 50.3 54.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 66.2 86.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 33.3 29.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.3 / 9.7 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 13.4 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
NAU
MONT
NAU
ML
39% 13-20
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
81% 26-6
ATS
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
81% 26-6
TTL
59% 19-13-1
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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