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CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE

MATADORSCSUN

8-6  |  Road

80
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 5:00 PM ET
University Credit Union Center
View Odds Details →

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

7-5  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
MATADORS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UC Davis)
MatadorsCSUN (-3.5) 0 AggiesUCD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Matadors Cover

42.1%

Aggies Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)

CSUN By 1-7 points

23.0%

CSUN By 8-14 points

12.2%

UCD By 1-7 points

26.8%

UCD By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
87
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
89
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
68
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
72
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 UCD @ CSUN 78 - 94
Jan 1, 2026 CSUN @ UCD 80 - 89
Feb 22, 2025 CSUN @ UCD 65 - 62
Jan 4, 2025 UCD @ CSUN 61 - 73
Feb 22, 2024 UCD @ CSUN 66 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +33.1% more
UC Davis: 10.0 vs Cal State Northridge: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
UC Davis: 79.1% vs Cal State Northridge: 74.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
UC Davis: 49.5% vs Cal State Northridge: 47.0%
Blocks (L5) +36.2% more
Cal State Northridge: 2.9 vs UC Davis: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score 87.0 80
UCD Score 89.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 38.9 50.0 / 35.0
Assists 19.4 / 18.4 24.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.9 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 47.0 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 79.1 / 74.0 78.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 40.1 33.0 / 38.0
Steals 10.0 / 7.5 10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 12.1 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
UCD
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
UCD Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +2.4
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
CSUN
UCD
CSUN
ML
58% 19-14
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
ATS
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
TTL
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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