SACRAMENTO STATE
HORNETSSAC
4-8 | Road
84
IDAHO STATE
BENGALSIDST
7-6 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
BENGALS
0%
HORNETS
--
BENGALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Idaho State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDST -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)
SAC By 1-7 points
15.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
5.8%
IDST By 1-7 points
26.2%
IDST By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento State
61
SACRAMENTO STATE
Idaho State
68
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
Sacramento State
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
Idaho State
72
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bengals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bengals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bengals (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Bengals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
IDST @ SAC
65 - 83
Jan 1, 2026
SAC @ IDST
84 - 97
Feb 22, 2025
SAC @ IDST
66 - 83
Jan 23, 2025
IDST @ SAC
71 - 75
Feb 8, 2024
SAC @ IDST
40 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+16.6% more
Idaho State: 13.4
vs
Sacramento State: 11.5
Blocks (L5)
+12.8% more
Idaho State: 3.4
vs
Sacramento State: 3.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.7%
Idaho State: 40.3%
vs
Sacramento State: 30.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Idaho State: 46.9%
vs
Sacramento State: 38.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
61.0
84
IDST Score
68.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 30.6
47.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.4 / 11.5
19.0 / 7.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.0
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 38.3
49.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 83.9
70.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
30.4 / 36.2
38.0 / 35.0
Steals
4.3 / 7.6
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 10.4
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
IDST
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
IDST
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
SAC
IDST
SAC
ML
59%
19-13
57%
17-13
72%
23-9
87%
26-4
ATS
50%
16-16
73%
22-8
72%
23-9
87%
27-4
TTL
59%
19-13
60%
18-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
Florida State Crushes Virginia 38-7 as Ashton Daniels Sets Recor…
Lions Edge Jets 31-24: Gibbs' Hat Trick, TeSlaa's Breakout, and …
Princeton Basketball Standout A'mire Gill Pledges to Miami (Ohio…
Nuggets Eye Ryan Nembhard as Potential Two-Way Steal if Hornets …