Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Salukis VAL @ SIU

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

6-7  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 3:00 PM ET
Banterra Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

6-8  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
SALUKIS
0%
BEACONS --
SALUKIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Southern Illinois)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 SalukisSIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

3.6%

Salukis Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)

VAL By 1-7 points

2.7%

VAL By 8-14 points

0.5%

SIU By 1-7 points

10.7%

SIU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
61
VALPARAISO
79
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
65
VALPARAISO
72
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Salukis Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Salukis Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Salukis (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Salukis (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 SIU @ VAL 63 - 69
Jan 1, 2026 VAL @ SIU 70 - 75
Feb 22, 2025 VAL @ SIU 83 - 79
Jan 28, 2025 SIU @ VAL 79 - 75
Jan 24, 2024 VAL @ SIU 69 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +69.8% more
Southern Illinois: 9.3 vs Valparaiso: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +38.0% more
Southern Illinois: 14.2 vs Valparaiso: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Southern Illinois: 47.8% vs Valparaiso: 39.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Southern Illinois: 30.6% vs Valparaiso: 27.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 61.0 70
SIU Score 79.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 27.0 33.0 / 19.0
Assists 10.0 / 11.8 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.1 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 39.7 40.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 68.1 / 72.7 60.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 36.4 43.0 / 47.0
Steals 9.3 / 5.5 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 10.3 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
SIU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
SIU
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
VAL
SIU
VAL
ML
53% 17-15
48% 16-17
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
ATS
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 47 minutes ago
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
yahoo 19 hours, 55 minutes ago
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…
kwch 4 days ago
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
headtopics 4 days, 19 hours ago
Florida State Crushes Virginia 38-7 as Ashton Daniels Sets Recor…
si 4 days, 19 hours ago