SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
7-6 | Road
78
VMI
KEYDETSVMI
5-8 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
KEYDETS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
KEYDETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VMI -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
SAM By 1-7 points
4.0%
SAM By 8-14 points
0.8%
VMI By 1-7 points
13.7%
VMI By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Samford
64
SAMFORD
VMI
80
VMI
Simulated Score
Samford
70
SAMFORD
VMI
82
VMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Keydets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Keydets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Keydets (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Keydets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
VMI @ SAM
61 - 80
Jan 1, 2026
SAM @ VMI
78 - 58
Feb 27, 2025
SAM @ VMI
95 - 83
Jan 9, 2025
VMI @ SAM
68 - 81
Feb 10, 2024
SAM @ VMI
102 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.3% more
VMI: 7.7
vs
Samford: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.8%
VMI: 75.5%
vs
Samford: 59.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+10.1% more
VMI: 10.9
vs
Samford: 9.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
VMI: 37.2%
vs
Samford: 30.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAM Score
64.0
78
VMI Score
80.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 30.9
22.0 / 42.0
Assists
16.1 / 17.9
9.0 / 22.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.4
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 47.1
34.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 59.7
75.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 44.9
38.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.7 / 6.1
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 9.9
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VMI
SAM
VMI
SAM
ML
53%
17-15
65%
20-11
84%
27-5
68%
21-10
ATS
50%
16-16
68%
21-10
84%
27-5
68%
21-10
TTL
62%
20-12
35%
11-20
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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