Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mocs @ Spartans UTC @ UNCG

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

6-7  |  Road

72
FINAL
Thu, Jan 1 • 4:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

4-9  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
MOCS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
MOCS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHATTANOOGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chattanooga)
MocsUTC (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mocs Cover

57.9%

Spartans Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTC)

UTC By 1-7 points

26.8%

UTC By 8-14 points

18.6%

UNCG By 1-7 points

23.0%

UNCG By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
86
CHATTANOOGA
84
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
68
CHATTANOOGA
75
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mocs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mocs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 UNCG @ UTC 85 - 80
Jan 1, 2026 UTC @ UNCG 72 - 77
Feb 27, 2025 UTC @ UNCG 75 - 63
Jan 9, 2025 UNCG @ UTC 78 - 75
Feb 10, 2024 UTC @ UNCG 89 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.5% more
Chattanooga: 1.8 vs UNC Greensboro: 1.1
Steals (L5) +8.3% more
Chattanooga: 7.0 vs UNC Greensboro: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +2.5%
Chattanooga: 74.9% vs UNC Greensboro: 72.3%
Rebounding (L5) +32.4% more
UNC Greensboro: 45.1 vs Chattanooga: 34.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTC Score 86.0 72
UNCG Score 84.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 36.8 32.0 / 31.0
Assists 18.9 / 15.3 9.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.1 / 1.8 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 44.1 46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 74.9 68.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 45.1 / 34.1 41.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.0 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 8.1 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
UNCG Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
UNCG Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
UTC
UNCG
UTC
ML
38% 13-21
48% 15-16
71% 24-10
53% 16-14
ATS
44% 15-19
52% 16-15
71% 24-10
55% 17-14
TTL
76% 26-8
77% 24-7
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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