EVANSVILLE
PURPLE ACESEVAN
4-10 | Road
47
ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
11-3 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
REDBIRDS
0%
PURPLE ACES
--
REDBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Illinois State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
EVAN By 1-7 points
20.1%
EVAN By 8-14 points
9.3%
ILST By 1-7 points
27.4%
ILST By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Evansville
70
EVANSVILLE
Illinois State
74
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
Evansville
68
EVANSVILLE
Illinois State
73
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redbirds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Redbirds (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
ILST @ EVAN
80 - 88
Jan 1, 2026
EVAN @ ILST
47 - 73
Mar 2, 2025
EVAN @ ILST
53 - 62
Jan 8, 2025
ILST @ EVAN
51 - 69
Mar 7, 2024
EVAN @ ILST
59 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+27.5% more
Illinois State: 15.8
vs
Evansville: 12.4
Turnovers (L5)
+15.7% more
Illinois State: 14.2
vs
Evansville: 12.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+15.4%
Illinois State: 55.6%
vs
Evansville: 40.2%
Steals (L5)
+9.7% more
Illinois State: 6.2
vs
Evansville: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score
70.0
47
ILST Score
74.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.4 / 33.7
32.0 / 30.0
Assists
15.8 / 12.4
12.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.6 / 3.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
55.6 / 40.2
47.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
66.8 / 71.7
63.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 35.9
34.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.2 / 5.7
10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 12.3
9.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.3
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
EVAN
ILST
EVAN
ML
42%
15-21
56%
18-14
71%
24-10
62%
20-12
ATS
58%
21-15
66%
21-11
71%
24-10
62%
20-12
TTL
58%
21-15
62%
20-12
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
