Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Falcons NO @ ATL

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

6-10  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

7-9  |  Home

19
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
SAINTS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

41.5%

Falcons Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ATL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

NO By 1-6 points

17.0%

NO By 7-13 points

17.5%

ATL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
17
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
24
NEW ORLEANS
27
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 ATL @ NO 45 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 NO @ ATL 17 - 19
Nov 23, 2025 ATL @ NO 24 - 10
Nov 10, 2024 ATL @ NO 17 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 NO @ ATL 24 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
New Orleans: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.4% more
Atlanta: 128.7 vs New Orleans: 101.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.4% more
Atlanta: 5.2 vs New Orleans: 4.6
Total Yards (L5) +10.7% more
Atlanta: 316.3 vs New Orleans: 285.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 20.0 17
ATL Score 17.0 19
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NO
ATL
NO
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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