Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Patriots MIA @ NE

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

7-9  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

13-3  |  Home

38
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
DOLPHINS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New England)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

23.8%

Patriots Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

MIA By 1-6 points

10.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

7.3%

NE By 1-6 points

15.3%

NE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17
MIAMI
27
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
16
MIAMI
27
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+14) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MIA @ NE 10 - 38
Sep 14, 2025 NE @ MIA 33 - 27
Nov 24, 2024 NE @ MIA 15 - 34
Oct 6, 2024 MIA @ NE 15 - 10
Oct 29, 2023 NE @ MIA 17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +81.2% more
New England: 267.8 vs Miami: 147.8
Total Yards (L5) +16.3% more
New England: 382.5 vs Miami: 328.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
New England: 0.4 vs Miami: 0.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.2% more
New England: 6.1 vs Miami: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 17.0 10
NE Score 27.0 38
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
MIA
NE
MIA
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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