Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Raiders KC @ LV

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

6-10  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-14  |  Home

14
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
0%
📊
RAIDERS
100%
CHIEFS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

69.1%

Raiders Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.5%

KC By 7-13 points

19.3%

LV By 1-6 points

12.9%

LV By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
KANSAS CITY
20
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
20
KANSAS CITY
30
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o36.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u36.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 KC @ LV 30 - 27
Jan 4, 2026 KC @ LV 12 - 14
Oct 19, 2025 LV @ KC 0 - 31
Nov 29, 2024 LV @ KC 17 - 19
Oct 27, 2024 KC @ LV 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +61.5% more
Kansas City: 119.6 vs Las Vegas: 46.0
Turnovers (L5) +54.8% more
Kansas City: 1.6 vs Las Vegas: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +36.8% more
Kansas City: 349.1 vs Las Vegas: 220.5
First Downs (L5) +24.5% more
Kansas City: 20.4 vs Las Vegas: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 27.0 12
LV Score 20.0 14
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
KC
LV
KC
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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