Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Broncos LAC @ DEN

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

11-5  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

13-3  |  Home

19
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
CHARGERS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Denver)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

33.4%

Broncos Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

LAC By 1-6 points

13.5%

LAC By 7-13 points

10.4%

DEN By 1-6 points

16.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
14
LOS ANGELES
20
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
LOS ANGELES
24
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u37.5 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
D
Sim u37.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 LAC @ DEN 3 - 19
Sep 21, 2025 DEN @ LAC 20 - 23
Dec 19, 2024 DEN @ LAC 27 - 34
Oct 13, 2024 LAC @ DEN 23 - 16
Dec 31, 2023 LAC @ DEN 9 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +56.8% more
Denver: 235.5 vs Los Angeles: 150.2
First Downs (L5) +20.5% more
Denver: 21.4 vs Los Angeles: 17.7
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Denver: 348.0 vs Los Angeles: 293.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.8% more
Denver: 5.2 vs Los Angeles: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 14.0 3
DEN Score 20.0 19
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
LAC
DEN
LAC
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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