Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Bears DET @ CHI

DETROIT

LIONSDET

8-8  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

11-5  |  Home

16
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
LIONS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

66.6%

Bears Cover

33.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

16.7%

DET By 7-13 points

19.0%

CHI By 1-6 points

13.5%

CHI By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
27
DETROIT
21
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
23
DETROIT
27
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 DET @ CHI 19 - 16
Sep 14, 2025 CHI @ DET 21 - 52
Dec 22, 2024 DET @ CHI 34 - 17
Nov 28, 2024 CHI @ DET 20 - 23
Dec 10, 2023 DET @ CHI 13 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.5% more
Detroit: 264.5 vs Chicago: 199.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.2% more
Detroit: 6.6 vs Chicago: 5.3
Total Yards (L5) +9.5% more
Detroit: 399.5 vs Chicago: 361.7
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
Chicago: 0.6 vs Detroit: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 27.0 19
CHI Score 21.0 16
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
DET
CHI
DET
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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