INDIANAPOLIS
COLTSIND
8-8 | Road
30
HOUSTON
TEXANSHOU
11-5 | Home
38
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
100%
TEXANS
0%
COLTS
--
TEXANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
IND By 1-6 points
15.3%
IND By 7-13 points
12.9%
HOU By 1-6 points
17.0%
HOU By 7-13 points
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Indianapolis
24
INDIANAPOLIS
Houston
27
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Indianapolis
24
INDIANAPOLIS
Houston
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Texans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Texans
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Texans (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Texans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o38.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim
u38.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
HOU @ IND
17 - 19
Jan 4, 2026
IND @ HOU
30 - 38
Nov 30, 2025
HOU @ IND
20 - 16
Oct 27, 2024
IND @ HOU
20 - 23
Sep 8, 2024
HOU @ IND
29 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+73.9% more
Indianapolis: 1.7
vs
Houston: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5)
+14.2% more
Indianapolis: 113.6
vs
Houston: 97.5
Yards Per Play (L5)
+13.5% more
Indianapolis: 5.4
vs
Houston: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
24.0
30
HOU Score
27.0
38
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
HOU
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -6.3
ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
HOU
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -6.3
ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
IND
HOU
IND
ML
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
Oregon Ducks Prepare for UCLA Without Star Quarterback Dante Moo…
CeeDee Lamb's Record-Setting Day Sparks Cowboys' Offensive Surge
Buccaneers Safety Antoine Winfield Sidelined, Adding to Tampa Ba…
Brian Branch's Return to Practice Could Be the Spark Detroit's D…