Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Bengals CLE @ CIN

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

4-12  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

6-10  |  Home

18
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
100%
📊
BENGALS
0%
BROWNS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Cincinnati)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

30.9%

Bengals Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CLE By 1-6 points

12.9%

CLE By 7-13 points

9.6%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.5%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14
CLEVELAND
21
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
23
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 CLE @ CIN 20 - 18
Sep 7, 2025 CIN @ CLE 17 - 16
Dec 22, 2024 CLE @ CIN 6 - 24
Oct 20, 2024 CIN @ CLE 21 - 14
Jan 7, 2024 CLE @ CIN 14 - 31
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +33.7% more
Cincinnati: 22.5 vs Cleveland: 16.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.3% more
Cincinnati: 255.5 vs Cleveland: 208.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.6% more
Cincinnati: 351.6 vs Cleveland: 301.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 14.0 20
CIN Score 21.0 18
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CLE
CIN
CLE
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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