Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Buccaneers CAR @ TB

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

8-8  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

7-9  |  Home

16
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
PANTHERS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Tampa Bay)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

41.5%

Buccaneers Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

CAR By 1-6 points

15.3%

CAR By 7-13 points

12.9%

TB By 1-6 points

17.0%

TB By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24
CAROLINA
27
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
24
CAROLINA
20
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 CAR @ TB 14 - 16
Dec 21, 2025 TB @ CAR 20 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 CAR @ TB 14 - 48
Dec 1, 2024 TB @ CAR 26 - 23
Jan 7, 2024 TB @ CAR 9 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.8% more
Tampa Bay: 137.5 vs Carolina: 116.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.2% more
Carolina: 201.3 vs Tampa Bay: 152.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.6% more
Carolina: 5.4 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Total Yards (L5) +8.8% more
Carolina: 318.0 vs Tampa Bay: 290.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 24.0 14
TB Score 27.0 16
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CAR
TB
CAR
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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