NICHOLLS
COLONELSNICH
4-8 | Road
71
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
5-7 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
VAQUEROS
100%
COLONELS
--
VAQUEROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Nicholls)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NICH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)
NICH By 1-7 points
27.2%
NICH By 8-14 points
23.0%
RGV By 1-7 points
18.6%
RGV By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Nicholls
56
NICHOLLS
UT Rio Grande Valley
51
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
Nicholls
74
NICHOLLS
UT Rio Grande Valley
79
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Colonels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Vaqueros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Colonels (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Vaqueros (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
NICH @ RGV
68 - 86
Feb 9, 2026
RGV @ NICH
92 - 72
Dec 31, 2025
NICH @ RGV
71 - 69
Feb 22, 2025
RGV @ NICH
84 - 93
Jan 27, 2025
NICH @ RGV
82 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+50.0% more
Nicholls: 10.7
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Nicholls: 72.2%
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 66.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Nicholls: 49.8%
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 46.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Nicholls: 42.3%
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 39.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NICH Score
56.0
71
RGV Score
51.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 42.3
35.0 / 35.0
Assists
18.8 / 15.5
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.4 / 0.8
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 49.8
45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
66.8 / 72.2
79.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
38.7 / 28.3
34.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.3 / 10.7
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 11.2
19.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.4
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
NICH
RGV
NICH
ML
53%
16-14
53%
17-15
54%
15-13
68%
19-9
ATS
53%
16-14
47%
15-17
54%
15-13
68%
19-9
TTL
60%
18-12
56%
18-14
100%
28-0
100%
28-0
