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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

19-13  |  Road

113
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

18-16  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
SUNS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

42.1%

Cavaliers Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

PHX By 1-7 points

26.8%

PHX By 8-14 points

18.6%

CLE By 1-7 points

23.0%

CLE By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122
PHOENIX
120
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
110
PHOENIX
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Suns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o233.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 30, 2026 CLE @ PHX 113 - 126
Dec 31, 2025 PHX @ CLE 113 - 129
Mar 21, 2025 CLE @ PHX 112 - 123
Jan 20, 2025 PHX @ CLE 92 - 118
Apr 3, 2024 CLE @ PHX 101 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +8.0% more
Phoenix: 48.4 vs Cleveland: 44.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Phoenix: 37.8% vs Cleveland: 35.7%
Assists (L5) +12.2% more
Cleveland: 29.2 vs Phoenix: 26.0
Steals (L5) +8.9% more
Cleveland: 9.8 vs Phoenix: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 122.0 113
CLE Score 120.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 37.8 39.0 / 42.0
Assists 29.2 / 26.0 31.0 / 23.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.8 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 45.8 50.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 81.9 / 80.6 82.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 44.5 / 48.4 54.0 / 52.0
Steals 9.8 / 9.0 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 14.2 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PHX
CLE
PHX
ML
60% 69-46
57% 60-45
56% 55-44
51% 45-43
ATS
67% 75-37-3
58% 59-43-3
56% 55-44
51% 45-43
TTL
59% 68-47
59% 61-42-2
100% 99-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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