DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
22-10 | Road
106
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
20-14 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
NUGGETS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
15.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
25.3%
TOR By 1-7 points
4.8%
TOR By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
116
DENVER
Toronto
101
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Denver
108
DENVER
Toronto
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
TOR @ DEN
115 - 121
Dec 31, 2025
DEN @ TOR
106 - 103
Oct 6, 2025
DEN @ TOR
112 - 108
Nov 4, 2024
TOR @ DEN
119 - 121
Oct 28, 2024
DEN @ TOR
127 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.7% more
Denver: 13.2
vs
Toronto: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.9%
Denver: 39.9%
vs
Toronto: 30.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.4%
Denver: 51.4%
vs
Toronto: 44.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Denver: 86.2%
vs
Toronto: 81.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
116.0
106
TOR Score
101.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 39.9
27.0 / 29.0
Assists
28.4 / 30.1
27.0 / 17.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.7
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 51.4
37.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
81.5 / 86.2
81.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
49.4 / 41.5
50.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.1
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 13.2
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DEN
TOR
DEN
ML
55%
57-47
54%
57-48
55%
48-39
55%
47-39
ATS
61%
62-40-2
63%
65-38-2
55%
48-39
55%
47-39
TTL
60%
62-42
54%
56-48-1
100%
87-0
100%
86-0
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