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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

14-19  |  Road

95
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

28-5  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

38.2%

Thunder Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

POR By 1-7 points

21.6%

POR By 8-14 points

10.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
113
PORTLAND
116
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+16) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 124
Nov 30, 2025 OKC @ POR 123 - 115
Nov 23, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 122
Nov 5, 2025 OKC @ POR 119 - 121
Mar 7, 2025 POR @ OKC 89 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +66.2% more
Oklahoma City: 5.8 vs Portland: 3.5
Steals (L5) +63.1% more
Oklahoma City: 9.6 vs Portland: 5.9
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
Oklahoma City: 84.3% vs Portland: 70.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Oklahoma City: 51.0% vs Portland: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 113.0 95
OKC Score 116.0 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 35.8 33.0 / 40.0
Assists 25.1 / 25.0 29.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.8 / 3.5 10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 46.3 49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 84.3 / 70.3 77.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 43.9 / 45.9 41.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.6 / 5.9 15.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 17.5 15.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
POR
OKC
POR
ML
70% 80-34
53% 56-49
48% 46-49
55% 49-40
ATS
73% 83-30-1
62% 65-39-1
48% 46-49
55% 49-40
TTL
67% 76-38
56% 58-46-1
100% 95-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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