HIGH POINT
PANTHERSHPU
12-3 | Road
87
UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
6-8 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
PANTHERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UNC Asheville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)
HPU By 1-7 points
4.0%
HPU By 8-14 points
0.8%
UNCA By 1-7 points
13.7%
UNCA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
High Point
54
HIGH POINT
UNC Asheville
70
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
High Point
75
HIGH POINT
UNC Asheville
78
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UNCA @ HPU
71 - 75
Feb 19, 2026
UNCA @ HPU
48 - 74
Dec 31, 2025
HPU @ UNCA
87 - 69
Feb 8, 2025
UNCA @ HPU
100 - 104
Jan 4, 2025
HPU @ UNCA
99 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+50.2% more
UNC Asheville: 14.9
vs
High Point: 9.9
Steals (L5)
+64.9% more
High Point: 11.4
vs
UNC Asheville: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+53.1% more
High Point: 21.3
vs
UNC Asheville: 10.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+14.8%
High Point: 44.7%
vs
UNC Asheville: 29.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HPU Score
54.0
87
UNCA Score
70.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 44.7
25.0 / 53.0
Assists
10.0 / 21.3
7.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.4
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 57.0
45.0 / 62.0
Free Throw %
67.2 / 73.9
63.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 40.8
25.0 / 29.0
Steals
4.0 / 11.4
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 9.9
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HPU
Advantage
31-5-0
(86.1%)
Margin: 18.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
UNCA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HPU
Advantage
17-15-1
(53.1%)
Margin: 18.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
UNCA
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HPU
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +1.4
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
HPU
UNCA
HPU
ML
53%
16-14
80%
28-7
63%
19-11
80%
28-7
ATS
57%
17-13
71%
25-10
63%
19-11
80%
28-7
TTL
60%
18-12
66%
23-12
100%
30-0
100%
35-0
Contextual Game News
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