STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
10-2 | Road
74
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
3-9 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
DEMONS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Northwestern State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NWST -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)
SFA By 1-7 points
2.7%
SFA By 8-14 points
0.5%
NWST By 1-7 points
10.7%
NWST By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Stephen F. Austin
68
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Northwestern State
86
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
Stephen F. Austin
75
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Northwestern State
68
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Demons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Demons (+8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 27, 2026
NWST @ SFA
67 - 69
Dec 31, 2025
SFA @ NWST
74 - 64
Feb 15, 2025
SFA @ NWST
70 - 68
Jan 25, 2025
NWST @ SFA
57 - 54
Nov 13, 2023
SFA @ NWST
96 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+58.0% more
Northwestern State: 13.9
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 8.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Northwestern State: 73.3%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 65.6%
Blocks (L5)
+74.4% more
Stephen F. Austin: 3.5
vs
Northwestern State: 0.9
Rebounding (L5)
+36.8% more
Stephen F. Austin: 43.6
vs
Northwestern State: 27.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFA Score
68.0
74
NWST Score
86.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 39.7
24.0 / 26.0
Assists
11.3 / 17.3
8.0 / 13.0
Blocks
0.9 / 3.5
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 45.2
42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 65.6
64.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
27.6 / 43.6
28.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.3
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 8.8
7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
NWST
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
SFA
NWST
SFA
ML
68%
21-10
59%
17-12
77%
23-7
79%
23-6
ATS
68%
21-10
59%
17-12
77%
23-7
79%
23-6
TTL
39%
12-19
62%
18-11
100%
30-0
100%
29-0
