TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
8-6 | Road
80
TROY
TROJANSTROY
8-5 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
TROJANS
0%
BOBCATS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
TXST By 1-7 points
0.3%
TXST By 8-14 points
0.0%
TROY By 1-7 points
2.2%
TROY By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
62
TEXAS STATE
Troy
89
TROY
Simulated Score
Texas State
69
TEXAS STATE
Troy
72
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
TROY @ TXST
62 - 74
Dec 31, 2025
TXST @ TROY
80 - 100
Feb 25, 2025
TROY @ TXST
74 - 69
Jan 9, 2025
TXST @ TROY
74 - 73
Mar 9, 2024
TXST @ TROY
74 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.8% more
Troy: 15.7
vs
Texas State: 13.1
Rebounding (L5)
+14.5% more
Troy: 41.9
vs
Texas State: 36.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Troy: 34.5%
vs
Texas State: 28.7%
Blocks (L5)
+20.1% more
Texas State: 3.6
vs
Troy: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
62.0
80
TROY Score
89.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 28.7
63.0 / 45.0
Assists
15.7 / 13.1
18.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.6
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.8 / 42.0
61.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
75.6 / 81.2
63.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
41.9 / 36.6
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.4 / 10.4
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 13.1
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
TXST
TROY
TXST
ML
59%
20-14
42%
13-18
61%
20-13
83%
25-5
ATS
65%
22-12
48%
15-16
61%
20-13
84%
26-5
TTL
56%
19-15
65%
20-11
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
