Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dragons @ Seahawks DREX @ UNCW

DREXEL

DRAGONSDREX

6-8  |  Road

53
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 7:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

12-2  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
DRAGONS --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
DragonsDREX (-3.5) 0 SeahawksUNCW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dragons Cover

0.1%

Seahawks Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCW -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)

DREX By 1-7 points

0.1%

DREX By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNCW By 1-7 points

0.8%

UNCW By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
51
DREXEL
82
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
70
DREXEL
72
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 DREX @ UNCW 53 - 65
Feb 8, 2025 UNCW @ DREX 81 - 79
Feb 8, 2024 DREX @ UNCW 56 - 75
Jan 4, 2024 UNCW @ DREX 63 - 78
Mar 5, 2023 DREX @ UNCW 68 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +47.2% more
UNC Wilmington: 43.2 vs Drexel: 29.4
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
UNC Wilmington: 71.2% vs Drexel: 67.0%
Turnovers (L5) +16.5% more
Drexel: 12.9 vs UNC Wilmington: 10.8
Steals (L5) +15.4% more
Drexel: 6.9 vs UNC Wilmington: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DREX Score 51.0 53
UNCW Score 82.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 38.8 20.0 / 18.0
Assists 14.3 / 14.4 9.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 46.3 40.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 67.0 71.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 43.2 / 29.4 36.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.9 7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 12.9 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DREX
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DREX Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
UNCW
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DREX
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -2.8
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
DREX
UNCW
DREX
ML
64% 21-12
58% 19-14
52% 17-16
81% 26-6
ATS
58% 19-14
70% 23-10
52% 17-16
81% 26-6
TTL
61% 20-13
48% 16-17
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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