Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Rams SBU @ VCU

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

11-2  |  Road

82
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 2:00 PM ET
Siegel Center
View Odds Details →

VCU

RAMSVCU

9-4  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
BONNIES --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
VCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (VCU)
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 RamsVCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

15.9%

Rams Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VCU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VCU)

SBU By 1-7 points

10.7%

SBU By 8-14 points

3.3%

VCU By 1-7 points

23.0%

VCU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
55
ST. BONAVENTURE
65
VCU
Simulated Score
68
ST. BONAVENTURE
72
VCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 SBU @ VCU 82 - 89
Mar 14, 2025 SBU @ VCU 59 - 76
Jan 24, 2025 SBU @ VCU 61 - 75
Dec 31, 2024 VCU @ SBU 75 - 77
Jan 30, 2024 VCU @ SBU 62 - 67
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
VCU: 43.3% vs St. Bonaventure: 36.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
VCU: 52.2% vs St. Bonaventure: 47.2%
Blocks (L5) +28.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 4.3 vs VCU: 3.0
Steals (L5) +15.4% more
St. Bonaventure: 9.0 vs VCU: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 55.0 82
VCU Score 65.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.3 / 36.7 25.0 / 60.0
Assists 17.7 / 17.2 13.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.3 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 52.2 / 47.2 55.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 77.4 93.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 36.7 24.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.6 / 9.0 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.9 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
VCU Advantage
28-8-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
VCU Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VCU
SBU
VCU
SBU
ML
72% 26-10
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
61% 20-13
ATS
81% 29-7
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
61% 20-13
TTL
58% 21-15
38% 13-21
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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