SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
8-7 | Road
61
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
10-5 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
COYOTES
0%
BISON
100%
COYOTES
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
188.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NDSU +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)
SDAK By 1-7 points
25.3%
SDAK By 8-14 points
26.2%
NDSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
NDSU By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota
98
SOUTH DAKOTA
North Dakota State
90
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
South Dakota
68
SOUTH DAKOTA
North Dakota State
72
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Coyotes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bison (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o164.5
Loss
Proj Total: 188.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
NDSU @ SDAK
89 - 84
Dec 31, 2025
SDAK @ NDSU
61 - 84
Mar 7, 2025
SDAK @ NDSU
85 - 84
Feb 26, 2025
SDAK @ NDSU
78 - 82
Jan 18, 2025
NDSU @ SDAK
103 - 77
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
South Dakota: 37.3%
vs
North Dakota State: 33.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
South Dakota: 70.3%
vs
North Dakota State: 66.8%
Blocks (L5)
+16.6% more
North Dakota State: 2.3
vs
South Dakota: 1.9
Turnovers (L5)
+16.3% more
North Dakota State: 14.1
vs
South Dakota: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDAK Score
98.0
61
NDSU Score
90.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 37.3
28.0 / 36.0
Assists
14.4 / 13.7
14.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.3 / 1.9
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 47.5
55.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
66.8 / 70.3
65.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 37.5
35.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.0 / 7.2
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 12.1
8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDAK
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
SDAK
NDSU
SDAK
ML
49%
17-18
70%
21-9
59%
20-14
63%
19-11
ATS
54%
19-16
70%
21-9
59%
20-14
63%
19-11
TTL
43%
15-20
67%
20-10
100%
34-0
100%
30-0
