NORTH TEXAS
MEAN GREENUNT
9-4 | Road
48
MEMPHIS
TIGERSMEM
5-7 | Home
57
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
100%
TIGERS
0%
MEAN GREEN
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
UNT By 1-7 points
1.7%
UNT By 8-14 points
0.3%
MEM By 1-7 points
8.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
North Texas
64
NORTH TEXAS
Memphis
84
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
North Texas
70
NORTH TEXAS
Memphis
75
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
MEM @ UNT
69 - 76
Dec 31, 2025
UNT @ MEM
48 - 57
Jan 5, 2025
UNT @ MEM
64 - 68
Feb 15, 2024
MEM @ UNT
66 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+31.2% more
Memphis: 16.5
vs
North Texas: 12.6
Rebounding (L5)
+26.7% more
Memphis: 39.8
vs
North Texas: 31.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.5%
Memphis: 68.3%
vs
North Texas: 65.8%
Blocks (L5)
+20.2% more
North Texas: 5.4
vs
Memphis: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNT Score
64.0
48
MEM Score
84.0
57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 32.1
28.0 / 6.0
Assists
14.4 / 14.8
16.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.4
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 49.2
47.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
68.3 / 65.8
27.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
39.8 / 31.4
38.0 / 30.0
Steals
10.7 / 11.3
13.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 12.6
20.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
MEM
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
MEM
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
UNT
MEM
UNT
ML
62%
20-12
70%
23-10
68%
21-10
59%
19-13
ATS
62%
20-12
52%
17-16
68%
21-10
59%
19-13
TTL
66%
21-11
67%
22-11
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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