STONY BROOK
SEAWOLVESSTBK
8-6 | Road
57
WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
10-3 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
SEAWOLVES
100%
TRIBE
0%
SEAWOLVES
--
TRIBE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around W&M -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
STBK By 1-7 points
0.1%
STBK By 8-14 points
0.0%
W&M By 1-7 points
0.8%
W&M By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Stony Brook
49
STONY BROOK
William & Mary
80
WILLIAM & MARY
Simulated Score
Stony Brook
69
STONY BROOK
William & Mary
72
WILLIAM & MARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tribe
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tribe
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tribe (-11)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Tribe (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.0
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u158.0
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 31, 2025
STBK @ W&M
57 - 76
Jan 4, 2025
W&M @ STBK
83 - 76
Feb 24, 2024
W&M @ STBK
62 - 75
Jan 13, 2024
STBK @ W&M
63 - 59
Feb 16, 2023
W&M @ STBK
66 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+80.2% more
William & Mary: 19.5
vs
Stony Brook: 10.8
Steals (L5)
+55.5% more
William & Mary: 7.5
vs
Stony Brook: 4.8
Blocks (L5)
+24.1% more
William & Mary: 2.7
vs
Stony Brook: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.0%
William & Mary: 76.5%
vs
Stony Brook: 60.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STBK Score
49.0
57
W&M Score
80.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 36.3
38.0 / 24.0
Assists
19.5 / 10.8
19.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.2
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
51.1 / 40.9
49.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 60.5
80.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 33.8
36.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.5 / 4.8
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 13.6
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
W&M
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
W&M
STBK
W&M
STBK
ML
55%
17-14
61%
19-12
61%
19-12
71%
22-9
ATS
63%
19-11-1
61%
19-12
61%
19-12
71%
22-9
TTL
61%
19-12
65%
20-11
100%
31-0
100%
31-0