UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
4-8 | Road
70
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
OWLSFAU
8-5 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
OWLS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)
UTSA By 1-7 points
4.8%
UTSA By 8-14 points
1.1%
FAU By 1-7 points
15.3%
FAU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
94
UTSA
Florida Atlantic
109
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
UTSA
69
UTSA
Florida Atlantic
78
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Owls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Owls (+16.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Owls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.5
Win
Proj Total: 203.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
FAU @ UTSA
60 - 52
Dec 31, 2025
UTSA @ FAU
70 - 110
Jan 29, 2025
UTSA @ FAU
74 - 94
Jan 21, 2024
FAU @ UTSA
112 - 103
Feb 23, 2023
UTSA @ FAU
66 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+62.9% more
Florida Atlantic: 5.6
vs
UTSA: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+11.6% more
Florida Atlantic: 14.6
vs
UTSA: 13.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Florida Atlantic: 46.4%
vs
UTSA: 38.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Florida Atlantic: 34.4%
vs
UTSA: 28.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
94.0
70
FAU Score
109.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 28.8
51.0 / 29.0
Assists
14.6 / 13.1
19.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.6 / 3.4
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 38.7
58.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 70.2
80.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
37.6 / 36.7
47.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.3 / 6.8
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 15.3
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
FAU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
FAU
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
UTSA
FAU
UTSA
ML
64%
21-12
83%
24-5
66%
21-11
48%
14-15
ATS
70%
23-10
72%
21-8
66%
21-11
50%
15-15
TTL
58%
19-14
66%
19-10
100%
32-0
100%
30-0