MERCER
BEARSMER
8-5 | Road
72
FURMAN
PALADINSFUR
9-4 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
PALADINS
0%
BEARS
--
PALADINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
FURMAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Furman)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FUR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)
MER By 1-7 points
15.3%
MER By 8-14 points
5.8%
FUR By 1-7 points
26.2%
FUR By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
88
MERCER
Furman
95
FURMAN
Simulated Score
Mercer
71
MERCER
Furman
76
FURMAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Paladins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Paladins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Paladins (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Paladins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
FUR @ MER
64 - 69
Dec 31, 2025
MER @ FUR
72 - 74
Feb 12, 2025
MER @ FUR
72 - 96
Jan 25, 2025
FUR @ MER
79 - 74
Mar 2, 2024
MER @ FUR
82 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+50.4% more
Furman: 18.7
vs
Mercer: 12.5
Blocks (L5)
+25.7% more
Furman: 3.6
vs
Mercer: 2.8
Rebounding (L5)
+8.6% more
Furman: 40.8
vs
Mercer: 37.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Furman: 35.5%
vs
Mercer: 28.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
88.0
72
FUR Score
95.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 28.9
39.0 / 35.0
Assists
18.7 / 12.5
16.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.8
1.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 43.5
44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
63.9 / 59.8
59.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 37.6
41.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.9
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 11.4
11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
FUR
Advantage
22-13-0
(62.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
FUR
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FUR
MER
FUR
MER
ML
71%
25-10
55%
17-14
62%
21-13
71%
22-9
ATS
63%
22-13
58%
18-13
62%
21-13
71%
22-9
TTL
57%
20-15
61%
19-12
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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