Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Monarchs APP @ ODU

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

8-6  |  Road

81
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 2:00 PM ET
Chartway Arena
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

4-10  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
MONARCHS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
MONARCHS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (App State)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 MonarchsODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

81.6%

Monarchs Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around APP -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

APP By 1-7 points

24.3%

APP By 8-14 points

26.8%

ODU By 1-7 points

12.2%

ODU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
79
APP STATE
70
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
63
APP STATE
71
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Monarchs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Monarchs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 ODU @ APP 75 - 73
Dec 31, 2025 APP @ ODU 81 - 73
Mar 7, 2025 ODU @ APP 61 - 56
Jan 29, 2025 ODU @ APP 78 - 77
Jan 16, 2025 APP @ ODU 62 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.7% more
App State: 12.7 vs Old Dominion: 8.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
App State: 44.2% vs Old Dominion: 40.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
App State: 34.8% vs Old Dominion: 31.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +11.9%
Old Dominion: 73.9% vs App State: 62.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 79.0 81
ODU Score 70.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 34.8 42.0 / 33.0
Assists 8.4 / 12.7 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.3 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 44.2 42.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 62.0 59.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 39.6 28.0 / 43.0
Steals 4.6 / 4.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 11.0 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
ODU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
APP
ODU
APP
ML
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
ATS
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
TTL
70% 23-10
69% 22-10
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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