BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
20-14-4 | Road
4
DALLAS
STARSDAL
25-7-7 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 1.00 | 0.966 | -- |
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 4.00 | 0.871 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
4.00
0.966 Ldr
Save %
0.871
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
STARS
0%
SABRES
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
DAL By 1 goal
19.7%
DAL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stars (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Stars (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 15, 2026
DAL @ BUF
4 - 3
Dec 31, 2025
BUF @ DAL
4 - 1
Dec 31, 2024
BUF @ DAL
2 - 4
Oct 22, 2024
DAL @ BUF
2 - 4
Apr 9, 2024
BUF @ DAL
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+17.4%
Dallas: 21.3%
vs
Buffalo: 3.9%
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.4%
Dallas: 50.7%
vs
Buffalo: 47.3%
Takeaways (L5)
+15.6% more
Buffalo: 5.8
vs
Dallas: 4.9
Shots on Goal (L5)
+15.0% more
Buffalo: 30.1
vs
Dallas: 25.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.0
4
DAL Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.3 / 14.4
12.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
50.7 / 47.3
41.7 / 58.3
Hits
15.2 / 17.8
15.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
2130.0 / 393.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.6 / 30.1
29.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 5.8
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
BUF
DAL
BUF
ML
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
TTL
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
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