TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
22-13-3 | Road
4
ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
21-16-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.87 | 0.893 | -- |
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 3.82 | 0.862 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.87 Ldr
GAA
3.82
0.893 Ldr
Save %
0.862
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
DUCKS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ANAHEIM
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Anaheim)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around ANA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ANA)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
ANA By 1 goal
19.7%
ANA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Anaheim
4
ANAHEIM
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Anaheim
2
ANAHEIM
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Ducks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Ducks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Lightning (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 31, 2025
TB @ ANA
4 - 3
Oct 25, 2025
ANA @ TB
3 - 4
Jan 16, 2025
ANA @ TB
3 - 4
Jan 5, 2025
TB @ ANA
1 - 4
Mar 24, 2024
TB @ ANA
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+61.5% more
Anaheim: 38.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 23.7
Takeaways (L5)
+44.8% more
Anaheim: 5.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.3%
Anaheim: 51.7%
vs
Tampa Bay: 45.4%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+20.1% more
Tampa Bay: 16.3
vs
Anaheim: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
4
ANA Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.0 / 16.3
12.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
51.7 / 45.4
63.6 / 36.4
Hits
19.1 / 20.6
13.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
2.6 / 14.7
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
38.4 / 23.7
28.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
5.6 / 3.8
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ANA
TB
ANA
TB
ML
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
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