UCONN
HUSKIESCONN
12-1 | Road
90
XAVIER
MUSKETEERSXAV
9-4 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
0%
MUSKETEERS
100%
HUSKIES
--
MUSKETEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (UConn)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CONN -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)
CONN By 1-7 points
1.7%
CONN By 8-14 points
6.8%
XAV By 1-7 points
0.2%
XAV By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UConn
79
UCONN
Xavier
51
XAVIER
Simulated Score
UConn
73
UCONN
Xavier
82
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Huskies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Musketeers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Huskies (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Musketeers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
XAV @ CONN
68 - 93
Feb 3, 2026
XAV @ CONN
60 - 92
Dec 31, 2025
CONN @ XAV
90 - 67
Jan 25, 2025
CONN @ XAV
72 - 76
Dec 18, 2024
XAV @ CONN
89 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.0% more
UConn: 7.6
vs
Xavier: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+19.3% more
UConn: 13.2
vs
Xavier: 10.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
UConn: 49.3%
vs
Xavier: 43.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
UConn: 68.2%
vs
Xavier: 65.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CONN Score
79.0
90
XAV Score
51.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 34.5
22.0 / 46.0
Assists
19.0 / 17.7
18.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.3 / 7.6
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 49.3
43.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 68.2
68.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 38.4
26.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.8 / 5.8
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 13.2
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
Advantage
34-6-0
(85.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
XAV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN
18-22-0
(45.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
XAV
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: -1.5
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
CONN
XAV
CONN
ML
58%
19-14
76%
29-9
72%
23-9
66%
23-12
ATS
73%
24-9
74%
28-10
72%
23-9
66%
23-12
TTL
39%
13-20
50%
19-19
100%
32-0
100%
35-0
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