VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
11-1 | Road
85
VIRGINIA TECH
HOKIESVT
11-2 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
HOKIES
0%
CAVALIERS
--
HOKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Virginia Tech)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VT -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VT)
UVA By 1-7 points
0.8%
UVA By 8-14 points
0.1%
VT By 1-7 points
4.8%
VT By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia
70
VIRGINIA
Virginia Tech
93
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
Virginia
64
VIRGINIA
Virginia Tech
67
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hokies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hokies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hokies (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Hokies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
VT @ UVA
72 - 76
Dec 31, 2025
UVA @ VT
85 - 95
Feb 15, 2025
UVA @ VT
73 - 70
Feb 1, 2025
VT @ UVA
75 - 74
Feb 19, 2024
UVA @ VT
41 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+10.4% more
Virginia Tech: 10.6
vs
Virginia: 9.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.2%
Virginia Tech: 69.1%
vs
Virginia: 63.9%
Assists (L5)
+18.2% more
Virginia: 20.0
vs
Virginia Tech: 16.4
Steals (L5)
+14.1% more
Virginia: 9.1
vs
Virginia Tech: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVA Score
70.0
85
VT Score
93.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 41.1
32.0 / 22.0
Assists
16.4 / 20.0
12.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.5
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 53.5
35.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 63.9
68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 39.1
60.0 / 54.0
Steals
7.8 / 9.1
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 9.6
14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
VT
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
VT
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
UVA
VT
UVA
ML
53%
17-15
67%
24-12
72%
23-9
72%
26-10
ATS
59%
19-13
75%
27-9
72%
23-9
72%
26-10
TTL
69%
22-10
53%
19-17
100%
32-0
100%
36-0
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