DEPAUL
BLUE DEMONSDEP
8-5 | Road
66
VILLANOVA
WILDCATSVILL
10-2 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEMONS
0%
WILDCATS
100%
BLUE DEMONS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VILL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)
DEP By 1-7 points
27.2%
DEP By 8-14 points
20.1%
VILL By 1-7 points
21.6%
VILL By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
DePaul
60
DEPAUL
Villanova
57
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
DePaul
62
DEPAUL
Villanova
78
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Demons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
VILL @ DEP
76 - 57
Dec 31, 2025
DEP @ VILL
66 - 71
Feb 5, 2025
VILL @ DEP
59 - 49
Jan 4, 2025
DEP @ VILL
56 - 100
Mar 13, 2024
DEP @ VILL
57 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
DePaul: 69.9%
vs
Villanova: 67.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+18.8% more
Villanova: 36.4
vs
DePaul: 30.6
Blocks (L5)
+10.9% more
Villanova: 3.6
vs
DePaul: 3.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.1%
Villanova: 38.7%
vs
DePaul: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEP Score
60.0
66
VILL Score
57.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 30.5
43.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.5 / 12.6
9.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.2
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 42.5
34.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
67.1 / 69.9
68.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 30.6
39.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.4 / 7.0
9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 12.6
8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEP
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
VILL
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEP
Advantage
18-12-2
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
VILL
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEP
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6%
Total +/-: -5.1
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
DEP
VILL
DEP
ML
44%
14-18
59%
19-13
72%
23-9
80%
24-6
ATS
56%
18-14
50%
16-16
72%
23-9
80%
24-6
TTL
41%
13-19
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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