BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
11-2 | Road
81
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HUSKIESNIU
5-7 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
HUSKIES
0%
BULLS
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Northern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NIU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)
BUF By 1-7 points
21.6%
BUF By 8-14 points
10.7%
NIU By 1-7 points
27.2%
NIU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
74
BUFFALO
Northern Illinois
77
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Buffalo
68
BUFFALO
Northern Illinois
72
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Huskies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Huskies (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
NIU @ BUF
72 - 70
Dec 31, 2025
BUF @ NIU
81 - 67
Feb 11, 2025
BUF @ NIU
73 - 67
Mar 8, 2024
NIU @ BUF
78 - 68
Feb 13, 2024
BUF @ NIU
68 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+68.2% more
Northern Illinois: 15.6
vs
Buffalo: 9.3
Rebounding (L5)
+22.7% more
Northern Illinois: 42.1
vs
Buffalo: 34.3
Assists (L5)
+16.5% more
Northern Illinois: 14.7
vs
Buffalo: 12.7
Steals (L5)
+15.8% more
Northern Illinois: 7.5
vs
Buffalo: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
74.0
81
NIU Score
77.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.4 / 36.8
22.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.7 / 12.7
12.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.3 / 2.7
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 47.3
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
68.3 / 76.8
88.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 34.3
31.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.5 / 6.5
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 9.3
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
NIU
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
NIU
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
BUF
NIU
BUF
ML
67%
20-10
45%
14-17
66%
19-10
45%
14-17
ATS
63%
19-11
55%
17-14
66%
19-10
45%
14-17
TTL
67%
20-10
48%
15-16
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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