SE LOUISIANA
LIONSSELA
4-8 | Road
70
INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
6-6 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
LIONS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SE LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (SE Louisiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SELA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SELA)
SELA By 1-7 points
9.3%
SELA By 8-14 points
20.1%
UIW By 1-7 points
2.2%
UIW By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
SE Louisiana
69
SE LOUISIANA
Incarnate Word
50
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
SE Louisiana
67
SE LOUISIANA
Incarnate Word
71
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lions (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u136.5
Loss
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
UIW @ SELA
62 - 74
Dec 30, 2025
SELA @ UIW
70 - 79
Mar 9, 2025
UIW @ SELA
71 - 67
Feb 8, 2025
SELA @ UIW
71 - 66
Jan 25, 2025
UIW @ SELA
63 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.3%
SE Louisiana: 73.4%
vs
Incarnate Word: 67.1%
Assists (L5)
+25.4% more
Incarnate Word: 14.2
vs
SE Louisiana: 11.3
Rebounding (L5)
+11.2% more
Incarnate Word: 34.5
vs
SE Louisiana: 31.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.8%
Incarnate Word: 39.4%
vs
SE Louisiana: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SELA Score
69.0
70
UIW Score
50.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 30.6
52.0 / 20.0
Assists
14.2 / 11.3
11.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.2
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 43.0
41.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
67.1 / 73.4
75.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 31.1
37.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.6 / 6.9
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 10.3
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
9-22-0
(29.0%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
UIW
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
SELA
UIW
SELA
ML
47%
14-16
70%
21-9
76%
22-7
66%
19-10
ATS
53%
16-14
60%
18-12
77%
23-7
67%
20-10
TTL
60%
18-12
70%
21-9
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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