DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
8-5 | Road
89
DAVIDSON
WILDCATSDAV
8-4 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
0%
WILDCATS
100%
DUKES
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Duquesne)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUQ -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)
DUQ By 1-7 points
24.3%
DUQ By 8-14 points
26.8%
DAV By 1-7 points
12.2%
DAV By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Duquesne
97
DUQUESNE
Davidson
88
DAVIDSON
Simulated Score
Duquesne
72
DUQUESNE
Davidson
75
DAVIDSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dukes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dukes (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
DAV @ DUQ
67 - 56
Dec 30, 2025
DUQ @ DAV
89 - 83
Jan 4, 2025
DUQ @ DAV
71 - 77
Feb 7, 2024
DAV @ DUQ
72 - 59
Feb 26, 2023
DAV @ DUQ
71 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+31.3% more
Duquesne: 20.5
vs
Davidson: 14.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+19.4%
Duquesne: 73.0%
vs
Davidson: 53.6%
Steals (L5)
+17.5% more
Duquesne: 8.8
vs
Davidson: 7.3
Rebounding (L5)
+16.5% more
Duquesne: 42.2
vs
Davidson: 35.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score
97.0
89
DAV Score
88.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 37.0
30.0 / 46.0
Assists
14.1 / 20.5
12.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.0
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 50.8
39.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
53.6 / 73.0
80.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 42.2
39.0 / 53.0
Steals
7.3 / 8.8
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 12.7
6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
DAV
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
Advantage
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
DAV
13-17-2
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAV
DUQ
DAV
DUQ
ML
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
58%
19-14
58%
18-13
ATS
48%
16-17
69%
22-10
58%
19-14
58%
18-13
TTL
52%
17-16
50%
16-16
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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