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NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

10-2  |  Road

53
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 11:00 PM ET
ExtraMile Arena
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

8-4  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
LOBOS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (New Mexico)
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

100.0%

Broncos Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNM -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-7 points

0.5%

UNM By 8-14 points

2.7%

BOIS By 1-7 points

0.0%

BOIS By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
92
NEW MEXICO
59
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
68
NEW MEXICO
72
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lobos (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 BOIS @ UNM 91 - 90
Dec 30, 2025 UNM @ BOIS 53 - 62
Mar 14, 2025 BOIS @ UNM 72 - 69
Feb 19, 2025 UNM @ BOIS 78 - 86
Jan 17, 2025 BOIS @ UNM 65 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +68.0% more
New Mexico: 3.4 vs Boise State: 1.1
Steals (L5) +18.3% more
New Mexico: 6.6 vs Boise State: 5.4
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
New Mexico: 15.9 vs Boise State: 13.0
Free Throw % (L5) +8.1%
New Mexico: 83.4% vs Boise State: 75.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 92.0 53
BOIS Score 59.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 34.6 20.0 / 12.0
Assists 13.0 / 15.9 7.0 / 4.0
Blocks 1.1 / 3.4 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 49.3 36.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 83.4 64.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 36.0 48.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.4 / 6.6 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 11.6 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
BOIS
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
UNM
BOIS
UNM
ML
50% 16-16
57% 21-16
61% 19-12
74% 25-9
ATS
50% 16-16
57% 21-16
61% 19-12
74% 25-9
TTL
56% 18-14
41% 15-22
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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