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SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

7-4  |  Road

81
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 10:00 PM ET
Provident Credit Union Event Center
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

5-7  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
AZTECS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (San Diego State)
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

97.1%

Spartans Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDSU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SDSU By 1-7 points

9.3%

SDSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

SJSU By 1-7 points

2.2%

SJSU By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
80
SAN DIEGO STATE
61
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
60
SAN DIEGO STATE
75
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aztecs (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 30, 2025 SDSU @ SJSU 81 - 68
Feb 11, 2025 SDSU @ SJSU 69 - 66
Jan 28, 2025 SJSU @ SDSU 68 - 71
Feb 27, 2024 SJSU @ SDSU 64 - 72
Jan 9, 2024 SDSU @ SJSU 81 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +59.2% more
San Diego State: 4.5 vs San José State: 1.8
Assists (L5) +34.6% more
San Diego State: 18.7 vs San José State: 12.2
Rebounding (L5) +28.9% more
San Diego State: 42.0 vs San José State: 29.9
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
San Diego State: 47.5% vs San José State: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 80.0 81
SJSU Score 61.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 33.7 23.0 / 55.0
Assists 12.2 / 18.7 8.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.8 / 4.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 47.5 34.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 74.3 92.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 42.0 29.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.4 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 10.7 18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
SJSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
SDSU
SJSU
SDSU
ML
73% 24-9
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
ATS
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
TTL
61% 20-13
75% 24-8
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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