Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dons @ Beavers SF @ ORST

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

9-5  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 10:00 PM ET
Gill Coliseum
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

7-7  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
0%
📊
BEAVERS
100%
DONS --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (San Francisco)
DonsSF (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dons Cover

96.4%

Beavers Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SF -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-7 points

10.7%

SF By 8-14 points

21.6%

ORST By 1-7 points

2.7%

ORST By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
92
SAN FRANCISCO
74
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
75
SAN FRANCISCO
68
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dons (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Dons (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 SF @ ORST 77 - 78
Feb 12, 2026 ORST @ SF 90 - 63
Dec 30, 2025 SF @ ORST 62 - 70
Feb 26, 2025 SF @ ORST 74 - 72
Jan 18, 2025 ORST @ SF 70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +24.3% more
San Francisco: 39.0 vs Oregon State: 29.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
San Francisco: 44.6% vs Oregon State: 42.2%
Steals (L5) +64.0% more
Oregon State: 5.6 vs San Francisco: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +46.4% more
Oregon State: 13.2 vs San Francisco: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 92.0 62
ORST Score 74.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 32.6 48.0 / 19.0
Assists 13.6 / 13.7 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.6 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 44.6 50.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 71.8 93.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 29.5 / 39.0 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.6 / 3.4 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 9.0 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
ORST Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
SF
ORST
SF
ML
45% 15-18
39% 13-20
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
ATS
48% 16-17
42% 14-19
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
TTL
55% 18-15
73% 24-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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