GONZAGA
BULLDOGSGONZ
13-1 | Road
99
SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
6-7 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
TOREROS
100%
BULLDOGS
--
TOREROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Gonzaga)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GONZ -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)
GONZ By 1-7 points
1.1%
GONZ By 8-14 points
4.8%
USD By 1-7 points
0.1%
USD By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Gonzaga
87
GONZAGA
San Diego
57
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Gonzaga
65
GONZAGA
San Diego
88
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Toreros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (+28.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Toreros (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 30, 2025
GONZ @ USD
99 - 93
Jan 8, 2025
USD @ GONZ
80 - 93
Jan 20, 2024
GONZ @ USD
105 - 63
Jan 6, 2024
USD @ GONZ
74 - 101
Feb 23, 2023
USD @ GONZ
72 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.5% more
Gonzaga: 4.4
vs
San Diego: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+30.3% more
Gonzaga: 20.6
vs
San Diego: 14.4
Rebounding (L5)
+28.8% more
Gonzaga: 41.2
vs
San Diego: 29.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+12.8%
Gonzaga: 52.7%
vs
San Diego: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score
87.0
99
USD Score
57.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 43.5
39.0 / 44.0
Assists
14.4 / 20.6
21.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.4
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.9 / 52.7
52.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 73.9
65.0 / 54.0
Rebounding
29.3 / 41.2
27.0 / 44.0
Steals
10.3 / 8.1
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 9.3
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ
Advantage
31-4-0
(88.6%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -5.0
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
GONZ
USD
GONZ
ML
58%
19-14
71%
25-10
70%
23-10
69%
20-9
ATS
55%
18-15
69%
24-11
70%
23-10
69%
20-9
TTL
61%
20-13
57%
20-15
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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